IT-Driven Transformation of Global Trade and Its Impact on GDP in the Context of the 4IR

Abstract

This study evaluates the impact of structural changes in exports and imports on GDP dynamics within the context of the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR), contrasting these effects with those observed during the Third Industrial Revolution. Using World Bank data for 1970-2021, the analysis shows that global trade peaked in 2008 at 61.43% of world GDP, followed by a gradual shift toward deglobalization driven by trade wars and import substitution policies. A comparative methodological approach is applied to examine GDP growth trajectories in relation to changes in the shares of exports and imports in GDP. The findings confirm that GDP growth rates are significantly influenced by both countries’ income levels and structural trade shifts. The study demonstrates that 4IR amplifies GDP growth when export expansion outpaces import growth, while also increasing the volatility of GDP responses to structural changes in trade flows. Income-specific patterns are identified: low- and lower-middle-income countries tend to benefit from export-led substitution strategies, whereas upper-middle- and high-income countries gain more from balanced trade expansion. Future research will focus on exploring the role of artificial intelligence in shaping global economic growth.