Statistical Modeling of Determinants Influencing Economic Security in the Context of Sustainable Development and National Security

Abstract

The aggravation of the political crisis and the increase in geopolitical conflicts destabilize the world economy and create serious challenges for the national security of all countries of the world. Today, a new theoretical and methodological approach to understanding economic security, which is an important dimension of national security, is needed. Our research uses an approach using multivariate statistical modeling based on a unique set of generally recognized macroeconomic indicators for the year 2022 in most countries of the world. We created a factor model for detections of determinants of influence on national economic security and a model of canonical correlations for evaluating complex two-way relationships between selected determinants and generally recognized reliable indices that can serve as approximate estimates of the level of economic security in the context of the concept of sustainable development (Human Development Index) and national security (GPI ‒ Global Peace Index). The obtained results are not without flaws and are only approximate estimates. However, they can improve the understanding of the problems of strengthening international coordination and cooperation in strengthening economic security, ensuring sustainable development and implementing the tasks of national security strategies of various states of the world.