Drought risk perception and adaptation in Central Asia

Abstract

Climate risks, particularly drought, increasingly threaten agricultural livelihoods in Central Asia. This dissertation examines farmers’ drought perceptions and their implications for climate-risk management. Using survey data from 2,830 grain-producing households in Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, and Uzbekistan, subjective drought perceptions are compared with satellite-based drought indicators (SPEI and DHI). Results reveal substantial perception inaccuracies, with 67% of farmers in Kyrgyzstan, 32% in Mongolia, and 46% in Uzbekistan misperceiving drought conditions. Propensity score matching shows that smartphone-based weather information significantly improves perception accuracy. The study further investigates how drought perception and perception biases affect interest in crop index insurance using data from 2,288 households in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. Findings indicate that perceived drought risk, agricultural education, risk attitude, awareness of index insurance, and access to subsidized credit increase willingness to purchase insurance.