Interrelationship Between Energy Transition and Energy Security in the Countries of Central Asia

Abstract

The energy transition has emerged as one of the defining drivers of transformation in the global economic system and international trade architecture. Amid escalating climate challenges, growing geopolitical tensions, and increasing volatility in global energy markets, the countries of Central Asia face the imperative of formulating balanced and adaptive strategies for the development of their energy sectors. The region possesses substantial reserves of conventional energy resources-including oil, natural gas, coal, and significant hydropower potential-while simultaneously demonstrating considerable capacity for the expansion of renewable energy sources (RES), particularly solar and wind power generation. This study aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the interrelationship between energy transition and energy security in the countries of Central Asia within the framework of regional integration. The paper examines the structural characteristics of national energy balances, the degree of dependence on hydrocarbon exports, the level of diversification of electricity generation, the resilience of energy systems to external shocks, and the prospects for cross-border energy cooperation. A systemic methodological approach is employed, incorporating comparative analysis, indicator-based assessment of energy security, and scenario modeling of energy transition pathways through 2040. The findings demonstrate that the energy transition in Central Asia cannot follow a universal model typical of the European Union or East Asian economies. Instead, the region requires a hybrid transition strategy that combines gradual decarbonization, modernization of conventional energy infrastructure, and strengthened regional energy integration. The study proposes a conceptual mod el of a balanced energy transition that accounts for the economic structures of Central Asian states, water-energy interdependencies, and investment constraints. The research findings provide practical implications for the formulation of national energy strategies, the design of regional cooperation mechanisms, and the attraction of foreign investment into the renewable energy sector.