Decarbonization of Central Asian Economies in the Context of Achieving net Zero Targets

Abstract

Achieving climate neutrality (Net Zero) has become a strategic priority for global climate stability and sustainable economic development. Central Asian countries, characterized by high dependence on fossil fuels and significant renewable energy potential, face both challenges and opportunities in the transition toward low-carbon economies. This study analyzes decarbonization prospects in Central Asia for the period 2026- 2050 using scenario-based and institutional approaches. Three development scenarios are examined: Business-as-Usual (BAU), Moderate Energy Transition, and Net Zero by 2050. The analysis evaluates CO₂ emission trajectories, changes in the regional energy mix, sectoral contributions to emission reduction, and institutional readiness for energy transition. The results show that the BAU scenario maintains a carbon- intensive development path and widens the gap between actual emissions and climate targets. The Moderate Transition scenario slows emission growth but remains insufficient to achieve climate neutrality. In contrast, the Net Zero scenario demonstrates the potential to reduce regional CO₂ emissions by 80-90% through large- scale renewable energy deployment, energy system modernization, and consistent institutional reforms. The findings further indicate that governance quality, regulatory frameworks, investment conditions, and monitoring systems are critical determinants of successful decarbonization. Without institutional transformation, the region's technical potential for emission reduction cannot be f ully realized. These results provide practical guidance for climate and energy policy development and support the design of long-term sustainable development and Net Zero transition strategies in Central Asia.