Climate Resilience of Infrastructure Systems Under Extreme Weather Threats in Central Asian Countries

Abstract

Amid the intensification of extreme weather events, enhancing the climate resilience of infrastructure systems has become a central pillar of sustainable development in Central Asian countries. The region exhibits high climate vulnerability driven by its continental climate, increasing temperature extremes, more frequent droughts, floods, and debris flows, as well as the strong dependence of socio -economic development on the reliable functioning of energy, water, and transport infrastructure. The objective of this study is to provide a comprehensive assessment of climate risks and infrastructure resilience in Central Asia using an integrated risk-based and spatial analytical framework. The methodology is grounded in the IPCC conceptual framework and includes the analysis of climate hazards, infrastructure exposure, and vulnerability, followed by the calculation of integrated Climate Risk (CR) and Climate Resilience Index (CRI_res) indicators. Climate inputs are derived from ERA5 reanalysis data, complemented by socio-economic and infrastructure datasets from international and national statistical sources. Spatial heterogeneity and sectoral differences are examined using geospatial analysis and comparative country case studies of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and the Kyrgyz Republic. The results reveal pronounced cross-country, subnational, and sectoral disparities in climate risk and infrastructure resilience levels. The largest resilience gaps relative to climate risk are identified in the water and energy sectors, particularly under conditions of high aridity and temperature extremes. Spatial analysis demonstrates that aggregated national indicators obscure localized vulnerability hotsp ots, underscoring the necessity of multi-level approaches to climate risk assessment and management. The findings provide important practical implications for regional development strategies, including the prioritization of adaptation investments, the integration of climate risks into infrastructure and spatial planning, and the strengthening of transboundary cooperation in Central Asia. The proposed methodological framework may be applied to other environmentally vulnerable regions facing escalating climate hazards.