Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://dx.doi.org/10.25673/117965
Title: Estimating the relative importance of epidemiological and behavioural parameters for epidemic mpox transmission : a modelling study
Author(s): Chaturvedi, Madhav
Rodiah, IstiLook up in the Integrated Authority File of the German National Library
Kretzschmar, MirjamLook up in the Integrated Authority File of the German National Library
Scholz, Stefan
Lange, BeritLook up in the Integrated Authority File of the German National Library
Karch, AndréLook up in the Integrated Authority File of the German National Library
Jäger, Veronika K.
Issue Date: 2024
Type: Article
Language: English
Abstract: Background: Many European countries experienced outbreaks of mpox in 2022, and there was an mpox outbreak in 2023 in the Democratic Republic of Congo. There were many apparent differences between these outbreaks and previous outbreaks of mpox; the recent outbreaks were observed in men who have sex with men after sexual encounters at common events, whereas earlier outbreaks were observed in a wider population with no identifiable link to sexual contacts. These apparent differences meant that data from previous outbreaks could not reliably be used to parametrise infectious disease models during the 2022 and 2023 mpox outbreaks, and modelling efforts were hampered by uncertainty around key transmission and immunity parameters. Methods: We developed a stochastic, discrete-time metapopulation model for mpox that allowed for sexual and non-sexual transmission and the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions, specifically contact tracing and pre- and post-exposure vaccinations. We calibrated the model to case data from Berlin and used Sobol sensitivity analysis to identify parameters that mpox transmission is especially sensitive to. We also briefly analysed the sensitivity of the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions to various efficacy parameters. Results: We found that variance in the transmission probabilities due to both sexual and non-sexual transmission had a large effect on mpox transmission in the model, as did the level of immunity to mpox conferred by a previous smallpox vaccination. Furthermore, variance in the number of pre-exposure vaccinations offered was the dominant contributor to variance in mpox dynamics in men who have sex with men. If pre-exposure vaccinations were not available, both the accuracy and timeliness of contact tracing had a large impact on mpox transmission in the model. Conclusions: Our results are valuable for guiding epidemiological studies for parameter ascertainment and identifying key factors for success of non-pharmaceutical interventions.
URI: https://opendata.uni-halle.de//handle/1981185920/119925
http://dx.doi.org/10.25673/117965
Open Access: Open access publication
License: (CC BY 4.0) Creative Commons Attribution 4.0(CC BY 4.0) Creative Commons Attribution 4.0
Journal Title: BMC medicine
Publisher: BioMed Central
Publisher Place: London
Volume: 297
Issue: 22
Original Publication: 10.1186/s12916-024-03515-8
Appears in Collections:Open Access Publikationen der MLU

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