Past, present, and future spatial patterns of migration in West Africa

Abstract

Migration in West Africa is influenced by various environmental, social, economic, and political factors. This dissertation examined spatial migration patterns in Burkina Faso, Nigeria, and Ghana through three interrelated studies. The first study analyzed past migration drivers and routes based on a literature review. The second study combined expert opinions with spatial proxy indicators to evaluate current vulnerability and the likelihood of out-migration. The third study examined how climate-related risks may influence current and near-future migration responses. The studies revealed different spatial patterns, showing that northern areas of the study countries are more likely to experience out-migration due to adverse environmental and socio-economic conditions. Overall, the results provide a more nuanced understanding of past, present and future spatial migration patterns, which can inform targeted climate adaptation and sustainable migration management measures in West Africa.