Improving the matrix-assessment of ecosystem services provision : the case of regional land use planning under climate change in the region of Halle, Germany

Abstract

Against the background of climate change, current and future provision of ecosystem services (ES) will also change. The recording of current provision potentials and its development in future is important for adapted regional planning. ES assessments are frequently carried out in the context of expert-based surveys, which have, however, revealed little information to date about uncertainties. We present a novel approach that combines the ES matrix assessment with the Delphi approach, confidence ratings, standardized confidence levels, and scenario assessment. First, the most important ES and their current and future provision potentials were identified by expert-based surveys in the study region, Halle (Saale) in Germany. Secondly, land use scenarios under climate change were developed that maintain the most important ES. The scenarios were assessed by the experts. Our study showed that the relevance of food as a provisioning ES, as well as spiritual values and recreational/landscape beauty as cultural ES, is high. A high level of acceptance was achieved by the afforestation scenario. Integration of the Delphi approach, confidence ratings, and confidence levels into the ES matrix assessment is an appropriate combination for estimating uncertainties in expert-based knowledge, thus contributing to the uncertainty assessment in regional planning.