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Titel: Inferring heavy tails of flood distributions through hydrograph recession analysis
Autor(en): Wang, Hsing-JuiIn der Gemeinsamen Normdatei der DNB nachschlagen
Merz, RalfIn der Gemeinsamen Normdatei der DNB nachschlagen
Yang, Soohyun
Basso, StefanoIn der Gemeinsamen Normdatei der DNB nachschlagen
Erscheinungsdatum: 2023
Art: Artikel
Sprache: Englisch
Zusammenfassung: Floods are often disastrous due to underestimation of the magnitude of rare events. Underestimation commonly happens when the magnitudes of floods follow a heavy-tailed distribution, but this behavior is not recognized and thus neglected for flood hazard assessment. In fact, identifying heavy-tailed flood behavior is challenging because of limited data records and the lack of physical support for currently used indices. We address these issues by deriving a new index of heavy-tailed flood behavior from a physically based description of streamflow dynamics. The proposed index, which is embodied by the hydrograph recession exponent, enables inferring heavy-tailed flood behavior from daily flow records, even of short length. We test the index in a large set of case studies across Germany encompassing a variety of climatic and physiographic settings. Our findings demonstrate that the new index enables reliable identification of cases with either heavy- or non-heavy-tailed flood behavior from daily flow records. Additionally, the index suitably estimates the severity of tail heaviness and ranks it across cases, achieving robust results even with short data records. The new index addresses the main limitations of currently used metrics, which lack physical support and require long data records to correctly identify tail behaviors, and provides valuable information on the tail behavior of flood distributions and the related flood hazard in river basins using commonly available discharge data.
URI: https://opendata.uni-halle.de//handle/1981185920/118024
http://dx.doi.org/10.25673/116068
Open-Access: Open-Access-Publikation
Nutzungslizenz: (CC BY 4.0) Creative Commons Namensnennung 4.0 International(CC BY 4.0) Creative Commons Namensnennung 4.0 International
Journal Titel: Hydrology and earth system sciences
Verlag: EGU
Verlagsort: Munich
Band: 27
Originalveröffentlichung: 10.5194/hess-27-4369-2023
Seitenanfang: 4369
Seitenende: 4384
Enthalten in den Sammlungen:Open Access Publikationen der MLU

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