Spatial assessment of current and future migration in response to climate risks in Ghana and Nigeria

Abstract

West Africa’s vulnerability to climate change is influenced by a complex interplay of socio-economic and environmental factors, exacerbated by the region’s reliance on rain-fed agriculture. Climate variability, combined with rapid population growth, intensifies existing socio-economic challenges. Migration has become a key adaptive response to these challenges, enabling communities to diversify livelihoods and enhance resilience. However, spatial patterns of migration in response to climate risks are not fully understood. Thus, the study evaluates the applicability of the IPCC risk assessment framework to map and predict migration patterns in Ghana and Nigeria, with a focus on identifying areas of potential out-migration. By integrating geospatial environmental, socio-economic, and population data, the study highlights areas that have a higher likelihood of migration for the current baseline and near future (2050). Future climate is modeled using CMIP6 projections under the RCP4.5 scenario, while population projections providing insight into future exposure. The results from the baseline assessment are compared with actual migrant motivations, providing a ground-level perspective on migration drivers. In northern Ghana and Nigeria, elevated hazard, vulnerability, and exposure scores suggest a higher likelihood of migration due to the overall risk faced by the population. This pattern is projected to persist in the future. However, migrant responses indicate that environmental factors often play a secondary role, with vulnerability factors cited more frequently as migration drivers. The findings highlight the importance of developing localized adaptation strategies that address the specific needs of vulnerable areas. Additionally, management strategies that enhance community resilience and support sustainable migration pathways will be critical in addressing future climate-induced migration challenges.